Who will make the cut in the first official Presidential Debate of the 2016 GOP Presidential Nomination race?
Fox News will announce on Tuesday afternoon the 10 candidates who will be allowed on stage for the “Main Event” debate at 9 PM ET on August 6 in Cleveland. No one knows exactly which polls they are going to use for their average. They say the five most recent polls from reputable polling organizations.
There’s lots of speculation, but it really is not going to be that complicated. We include just about all the polls out there in our National Polling Average. Fox News might pitch some of them out. But the result will be about the same. At this point – and there will likely be several new polls come out Monday-Tuesday – we predict the ten candidates who will be on stage for the debate will be:
1, 2, 3 – Donald Trump, Scott Walker, Jeb Bush = These are the big three, polling in double-digits.
4, 5, 6, 7 – The second tier several points back in the mid-single digits are Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul.
8, 9, 10 – The final three are Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, John Kasich – barring an unforseen collapse in the final polls. As you can see from the image below, Kasich’s poll numbers are rising in recent polls while Rick Perry’s are falling. Even if you throw a few of these polls out, the trend is the same in all of the polls. Kasich is now more than a point ahead of Rick Perry in the average.
We’ll see what the final polls show between now and Tuesday, but unless the trends change dramatically, these will be the ten candidates on the stage.
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