With Donald Trump as the “presumptive” GOP nominee, he will have a much harder time when it comes to the general election. Don’t take my word for it, because the evidence that Trump will likely lose in November speaks for itself. Here are at least 5 major reasons.
1.) His poll numbers are horrendous, including an unfavorable rating that is off the charts, even higher than Hillary Clinton’s. A recent poll in Georgia has both of them in a statistical tie. GEORGIA! A state that should easily be a red state, Trump only leads Hillary by one point, 42 – 41, in a WSB-TV/Landmark poll. He can’t expect to win elections this way and if some of these red states will be up for grabs for Hillary to win, imagine how bad the swing states will be for him.
If today’s general election polling holds true, Hillary Clinton will easily defeat Donald Trump https://t.co/6uPmxPC2jX
— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) May 5, 2016
It is true poll numbers are not everything, but they do mean something. If Trump wants to win this election, he will have to turn his polling around, and by a lot.
2.) Even Speaker of the House Paul Ryan came out recently saying he wasn’t ready to back Donald Trump for the general election. I don’t remember the last time a House Speaker came out not backing the candidate from his own party. This doesn’t mean it’s Ryan’s problem, but perhaps its a problem with the candidate. Now Trump supporters are irate that he isn’t backing Trump. However, I don’t recall any rule that says the House Speaker is mandated to back the GOP nominee. If he wants to get Ryan’s backing, he should learn that he needs to earn that support, and not be entitled to it.
3.) His flip flopping is not helping him. He recently came out saying he would now be open to raising the minimum wage, but that isn’t limited to this issue. Trump also flipped on immigration, when as recently as 2013 he said he was open to amnesty, but now claims he isn’t.
These are just a couple of the many issues he has changed on, and if he continues to flip-flop, it will confuse independent or undecided voters on who they should vote for if they don’t know what he stands for. Trump also claims he needs to be more unpredictable when it comes to foreign policy. But why support someone if you have no idea what they support in the first place? When a Trump supporter states they love what he supports, they should be asked “Do you support Trump’s views from yesterday, today, or tomorrow?”
4.) There will not be unity, and no unity means no win for Trump. I believe his campaign leaders are dreaming when they claim the party will unite by this November. With many conservatives deciding to either write-in a candidate or go 3rd party, even some supporting Hillary to stop Trump, he won’t have the votes to close it out. Plus there were a record number of GOP candidates in this race: SEVENTEEN! The damage has been done. There have been so many attacks and splits throughout the primary, that Trump will never make a full recovery for the general election.
5.) His campaign lacks organization, and this was evident when Ted Cruz’s campaign outsmarted him with a better ground game and grassroots in several states. Despite the Trump camp complains that Cruz was “cheating”, it is just more evidence that Trump can’t handle losing at anything. And if he had this much trouble with the organization during the primaries, I think it won’t be any better for the general election. In 2012, the ground game for President Obama easily defeated Mitt Romney’s, and I believe Hillary will do the same with Trump in 2016.
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