Let me ask you a question…what do you trust more – political polls or gas station sashimi?
2020 Polls or raw fish at an Exxon station – which one is it?
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Well, if you’re smart you’d roll the dice with the raw gas station fish, because truthfully it’s less likely to let you down.
Let’s face it, after the 2016 polling debacle nobody trusts the polls. And not because pollsters are clueless dullards who can’t figure out how to ask questions and tally the results.
It’s because everything – and I do mean EVERYTHING nowadays is politicized, even polling.
Which is why you probably won’t be surprised when I tell you that there’s still a lot of questionable shenanigans going on with today’s polling surrounding President Trump.
But don’t take my word for it – listen to Christopher Ruddy from Newsmax – he’s figured out exactly what no good they’re up to.
The pollsters are manipulating President Donald Trump’s approval numbers and I can prove it. Let me walk you through the facts.
But the numbers are much better than Reuters claims. I sifted through the polls raw data and polling “methodology.” What I found is this is a poll of “registered voters” – not likely voters.
One Trump pollster told me flatly: Donald Trump does at least 4 to 5 points better with respondents who actually show up and vote. We certainly saw that phenomena in 2016.
So, this slight qualification of the poll – focusing on likely voters – would push the president’s current approval number from the low 40s to the high 40s. This shift also puts the president within striking distance of reaching the magic 50% mark.
The Reuters poll data also reveals something more startling. The survey says it sampled 961 registered voters of which 456 were Democrats, 361 Republicans, and 106 independents.
Reuters gave the Democrats 95 more survey responses than Republicans, weighting Democrats as 47% of the poll sample, compared to 38% Republicans. This is a lopsided weighting in favor of the Democrats, giving them a 9-point advantage.
Had the Reuters poll used the same 4-point spread in its recent survey, fairly accounting for Republican voters, Trump would have surged over 50% approval (especially when factoring in “likely” voters). Trump’s poll numbers are good because he has powerful winds at his back. The economy is roaring with historic, low unemployment.
Wall Street is not particularly happy with his confrontational approach, but it is apparently resonating with Main Street and working Americans – as the polls show. Clearly, the president is close to having a “lock” on his re-election. One clue this is true is the relatively weak field of Democratic candidates seeking to challenge him for the presidency.
Obviously, potential Democratic challengers have read the polls and grasp the fact the president’s numbers are much stronger than the pollsters would have you believe. [Newsmax]
One thing to always keep in mind when you’re reading polls is that there are “three corners” to this triangle.
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The first corner are the pollsters who produce the raw polling results by determining percent preference by candidate. Of course they can sway their polls one way or another by how they phrase a question.
Then you have organizations like RCP and 538, who are not actual pollsters. They are computer modelers. They take raw poll data and produce election predictions based on the probabilities of winning by each candidate.
Lastly are the pundits, whose job it is to spin all of the above info to suit their agenda and increase their clicks or their ratings.
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