I absolutely love the blog “American Thinker.” They have such interesting stories and great writing, and I always learn something new when I venture over there.
And today was no exception.
There’s an article called “Why Democrat Poll Numbers Are Worse Than You Think” by John Kudla that is so good, and it really hit home with me, because if you follow along here at Wayne Dupree, you know we’re always talking about these over-sampled polls, and how Biden’s approval ratings are worse than you think.
Now, I say that stuff about polls, but Mr. Kudla actually did a really well-researched, fact-based piece on it and backed up everything I’ve been aimlessly blabbering about.
I really want you to read his entire piece because it’s that good and informative, but allow me to whet your appetite with some little snippets that I really found interesting.
Besides the obvious over-sampling of Dems, pollsters are doing two things that artificially inflate Joe Biden’s poll numbers… one of those things is they’re getting the “random voter sample” wrong… and one reason that’s happening is that they’re still calling landlines.
It’s been ages now that we’ve had cell phones, but pollsters still can’t figure out how to get past caller ID and get cell users to answer their calls.
So, in order to conduct the poll, they’re still calling landlines.
This is not only antiquated but the landline demographic does not properly represent the overall “random” electorate… at all.
Mr. Kudla writes:
As recently as the 1990s, pollsters could count on getting a random sample of responses to telephone surveys, but not anymore. Although most Americans have a cell phone, prohibitions on auto-dialing cell phones mean that pollsters continue to call landlines. This is problematic because landlines have a different demographic from the general population. And many of them have Caller ID, allowing voters to see who is calling.
If you ask me, pollsters don’t seem that keen on fixing this issue, mainly because polls are like “science” nowadays. You can twist your “research” into saying whatever the guy who’s paying for it needs it to say.
They’re not just for marketing — in the TDS era, they’re also a major propaganda tool. What better way to tell the country that Trump is “not popular” than with these goofy polls? That’s what they did for years.
So many of these “mainstream” pollsters are politically biased, so the waters get really murky.
Speaking of murky water — another problem for these pollsters, and what skews the numbers is that they’re drawing water from a well that is pre-determined to favor Dems.
Let me explain… most of these guys are polling folks from the “registered voters” pool instead of the “likely voter” pool, and there’s a good reason for that… It turns out the “registered voters” historically favor Dems far more than they do Republicans.
We estimate that on average in midterm years since 1990, registered voter polls have had a 2.6 percentage-point Democratic bias — compared against likely voter polls, which have been unbiased.
So, what does Mr. Kudla think the Dem skew number is?
The political climate today is different since the 2020 election, but the Democrat poll bias seems intact, which was 4% nationwide. Since nonresponse bias, 4%, and registered voter bias, 2.6%, should be mutually exclusive, we can add them together. This gives us a total Democrat bias of roughly 6.5%
What does this mean? Until pollsters switch to sampling likely voters right before the election, you can subtract a solid 6 percent from Joe Biden’s approval numbers. And if nothing changes before the election, any Democrat who leads by 3 percent or less is likely to lose.
So, if Biden is sitting at 33 percent in the latest Quinnipiac poll, a very left-leaning pollster I might add, he’s actually more likely at a 27% approval rating.
I highly suggest you read Mr. Kudla’s entire piece, it was really well done and fascinating.
You can click HERE to read it.
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