I just read a fascinating piece from Bradley A. Thayer over at American Greatness. He’s got this new theory that “The Swap” is going to get really complicated, because they not only have to get rid of Joe, but they need to get rid of Kamala, too. That’s right, the most “popular” political duo in US history is such a dud, that they both need to go. Now, his theory is interesting. He thinks Kamala will have to go first, and it’ll happen before midterms, and she’ll likely be replaced by someone like Gavin Newsom… and that’s who will then replace Joe Biden. So, we’re talking a “double whammy.” And if this actually is what they’re planning, they need to move FAST.
American Greatness reported that first, they must consider when to replace Biden with another candidate before 2024 and whether they can ride him out through the upcoming midterm election. If they ride him out, then the Democratic primary begins when polls close on November 8.
Obama and company can do little to prevent a primary challenge to Biden from across the Democratic field, however, so they will have to back a candidate early and forcefully to avoid any internecine bloodbath. Of course, Biden would be a lame duck with no political capital and will be a sitting president rejected by his party. He would be ignored and held in contempt as he fades into history.
If Biden is going to be replaced, however, which appears likely given his physical frailties and mental disintegration are increasingly hard to disguise, ideally this should be done after the midterms. His replacement would then be eligible to serve a full 10 years as permitted under the Constitution and it would place the Democrats on the path to victory in 2024. That is the best way to sustain the Obama agenda. Circumstances—whether lingering ill-effects of COVID or something else—may compel his replacement sooner. But would be poor timing for the Obama agenda.
A necessary condition for replacing Biden requires first replacing Vice President Kamala Harris, as she is clearly not up to the job she has, let alone the presidency. She consistently polls lower than Biden. Putting her in office would be like adding pure hydrogen to the Hindenburg explosion that is the Biden Administration. Given that they have Harris, the Democrats must make not one switch, but two.
The second hard choice is when to replace her. There’s a strong argument for doing it immediately. Doing so before the midterms ensures that it is possible and it is the path of least resistance. To do so with Republican control of Congress guarantees a fight and the possibility that Obama and company don’t get their first choice.
At the same time, no obvious replacement is guaranteed to be as pliable as Harris. Obama and his people may find that Biden’s replacement has a mind of his own as Lyndon Johnson did after Kennedy’s assassination. Once in power, the new president could clean shop and end Obama’s influence. But that is a risk they will have to take.
Once Harris is replaced by the necessary figure, however—say California Governor Gavin Newsom or perhaps even former First Lady Michelle Obama—then the push is on to evict Biden just as soon as possible, likely early in 2023. It would be impossible to have a young vice president like Newsom to contrast with Biden. Biden is likely to go willingly as the good foot soldier he always was. There would be some grumbling as Justice Breyer did when he was pushed out, but he will leave just the same. If Biden fights, it will get ugly.
How will they oust Kamala? Well, the author of the piece doesn’t really get into that, but I think they’ll make her a sweet deal, and give her some power position that will keep her more out of the public eye. So, how do they oust Joe? Well, likely by using either the 25th Amendment, if he refuses to go quietly, or he’ll willingly step down, citing “health issues,” and then Kamala’s replacement steps in — they’ll pick a new VP, somebody like New York Governor Kathy Hochul. And yes, if this sounds like a horror movie, it is… I can’t think of anything worse than this. As far as I’m concerned, we’re better off with Joe and Kamala until 2024.
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