There’s a little game the left and the media play every election cycle. They’ll report for months and months about an impending “blowout” that’s coming, and then, right when it matters and Dems need help to energize their base, suddenly, it’ll look like the race is closing in, and things are tightening up and Dems are making a miraculous comeback. This always happens like clockwork. Now, that’s not to say there aren’t changes in polling, since as we get closer to election day more people pay attention, but it’s never as drastic and miraculous as they claim it is.
Polls are a marketing and media tool. You can get them to say whatever you want them to say based on the questions you ask, how you ask them, and who you sample and how. Polls are a lot like “scientific research.” Whoever is funding the research, will always get the result they want.
The media likes to pretend races are “tight” because it gives them something to talk and write about. Dems want to get the word out that they’ve launched a comeback to not only engage their base but depress the other side, too.
It’s all a game, but it’s an effective one, and that’s why they keep using it. The problem is, that the polls are so wildly off that people are noticing something’s up. The wild polls started back in 2016 when Trump splashed on the scene and while they’ve improved some, they’re still all over the map… and that’s by design. They lie and manipulate where needed.
So, what exactly is going on right now with the polls we’re seeing about Dems launching this “Midterm Comeback?”
Well, like I said… it’s a game. Only now, one very popular left-leaning pollster named Nate Cohn doesn’t want to play anymore, and he’s calling out what’s really going on… and it’s very bad news for Dems.
Very, very bad.
The fine folks over at American Thinker did a great piece on how “scared” Dems are, and in that piece, they shared what infamous pollster Nate Cohn had to say about all those corporate polls we’ve been seeing that are showing Dems making all this new ground. Here’s what J. Robert Smith said in his piece: It’s less than two months to Election Day — whatever that means anymore. Early voting is gearing up. Reliable polls – Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports – show Republicans gaining. Even the Real Clear Politics average of major polls – that includes corporate media sponsored or cited surveys – show Democrats with a trifling 1.1% edge in the generic congressional ballot. That’s bad news for Democrats.
Corporate media polls are giving Nate Cohn, the New York Times poll-parser, the willies. Cohn is well aware of polls’ flaws. He just sounded a blue alert for Democrats. Via MEDIAite, September 12:
Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.
That’s a polite way of saying that big media polls are skewed. Cohn cites a failure to make “significant methodological changes,” which, translated, means, in part, a lot of polls oversample Democrats. Even with slanted polls, Democrats are struggling. Republicans are positioned to rack up a whole heap of wins come November. Democrat consultants are well aware of that bleak prospect.
At this point, Nate knows if he doesn’t pipe up about the polls, he’s toast.
His reputation took such a beating for the farce he went along with in 2016, that he just can’t play these games anymore if he wants to stay somewhat relevant.
J. Robert Smith wrote a great article. I’d urge you to read the rest of it here.
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