Sen. Raphael Warnock is expected to win reelection and overcome Republican opponent Herschel Walker in the campaign, which is now headed for a runoff, according to a respected pollster.
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight stated on ABC News’ This Week that he believes the betting markets, which indicate a 70% chance that Warnock will hold his seat, have merit. If Warnock prevails, it will be the first occasion since 1914 that an incumbent senator from Georgia has lost.
Silver cited Warnock’s first-round victory margin of 49.5% to 48.5%. The Georgia governor’s reelection, he claimed, may have encouraged Republican voters to cast ballots, but Kemp won’t be appearing on the Warnock and Walker runoff ballot.
In the runoff, Warnock might potentially witness history repeat itself. He defeated Republican Kelly Loeffler, an appointed incumbent, in the 2020 runoff.
According to Silver, there are other variables that favor Walker, such as the libertarian voters’ propensity for conservatism. In the first voting round, they received 2.1% for their nominee, Chase Oliver. The majority of Libertarian voters, according to exit polls, believed Walker’s positions were “too radical,” according to Silver.
Although I agree with the bookmakers that Warnock is the favorite, Silver added, “I think it’s anybody’s race.”
Dec. 6 has been set aside for the Georgia runoff. Republican attack commercials against Warnock have already started running, with the most recent referring to him as a “brilliant actor.” Senate Democrats have already invested $7 million in the election.
Many Republicans are hoping that support for Walker won’t come from former president Donald Trump, who has all but formally declared his intention to run for president in 2024, but from other GOP figures like Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had successful victories in the state and national midterm elections. He intends to reveal something on November 15.
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