One of the few pollsters to correctly forecast the election of former President Donald Trump in 2016 was The Trafalgar Group. Robert Cahaly, the founder and chief strategist of the Atlanta-based company, predicted a second Trump win in 2020 inaccurately, but his projections of the actual outcomes in the key states were more accurate than those of any other pollster. For instance, according to Cahaly, Trump would have won Wisconsin by 1 point, while he actually fell short by 0.7 points.
Broadly speaking, mainstream pollsters had missed the target. According to the 270toWin polling average on election day, Biden would win the state by a margin of 9.2%. You might remember the most absurd outcome of them all—a poll conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post and released only days before the election that gave Biden a 17-point lead.
In any case, the right-leaning pollster attributes his accuracy to his ability to recognize the “shy Trump voter,” or those unwilling to publicly declare their support for the despised former president. Cahaly has recently stated in media appearances that the “submerged Trump supporter” has replaced the “shy Trump voter.”
In a recent interview, Cahaly claimed that it is “nearly difficult to survey” submerged voters. And we excel in uncovering votes that are somewhat concealed, like that. It’s different with these folks though since no conversation is being had with them. Therefore, we are unable to measure it, but we anticipate that Republican turnout will surpass that of all polls.
Cahaly cites the Biden administration’s criticism of “MAGA” Republicans as a national security danger as the cause of the buried Trump voter’s worries. We discovered that many individuals today don’t want to take part in surveys. They used to display signs in their yards or bumper stickers on their cars. They could make comments on social media, consult with their friends, or conduct surveys. Now, they don’t do any of it.
Cahaly elaborated on this idea in an interview conducted in mid-October. Many individuals have told us that, given the current situation, whether this is appropriate or not, I don’t know the answer, but they believe that the FBI is monitoring social media activity based on what they see on television, hear on the radio, and read in the newspaper, he added. They learn that the government has instructed the bank to record gun purchases, for example. Therefore, the idea that they would be monitoring what individuals say in surveys is not a huge leap in their minds. They thus state, “We’re not accepting them.”
Since Biden’s odd “soul of the nation” address on September 1 in which he called “MAGA Republicans” “semi-fascists,” according to Cahaly, “We had six different individuals come out to us with a snapshot of a poll or an audio of them talking to someone and asking, ‘Hey, is this you? I was hesitant to accept it since I’m anxious and unsure. That has never happened in the years we’ve been doing this, and six times have since Biden’s speech? … Let me add that it was always our poll, just to be clear. But I believe that many, quote-unquote, “MAGA voters,” believe that someone is attempting to keep tabs on them.
“In 2020, were there instances of pro-life advocates having the FBI show up at their home armed with firearms and remove people? No. Were there instances of persons in 2020 who wanted to surrender but were instead subjected to a house raid a la the FBI? No. Did people in 2020 believe that Facebook and the FBI were collaborating? No. Did the American president declare that MAGA supporters posed a threat to the country in 2020? No.”
Nothing Cahaly says presents a challenge to belief. Conservatives are being specifically targeted by the Biden administration. For the sake of a poll, why take the chance of bringing attention to yourself?
This group may only represent a small portion of Republican votes, but if Cahaly is correct, there may be a larger “red wave” than initially predicted. A 1- or 2-point swing can also determine the outcome of an election in a close contest.
