GOP strategists say Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis's weaker-than-expected campaign is prompting Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to reconsider running for president.
These Republicans argue that DeSantis, long considered the strongest GOP primary challenger to former President Trump, has failed to distinguish himself.
Vin Weber, a GOP strategist, said, "I think his high point was right after the last election, when he was the brightest spot on an otherwise somewhat disappointing night for Republicans."
He's been weaker since then. “It looks to me people are looking at it because he’s not as strong as he was,” said Weber, who advised Republican presidential campaigns in 1996, 2004 and 2008.
Weber said Trump's legal issues make him vulnerable, despite his massive polling lead, which could make Youngkin and Kemp more interested in the race.
Weber said the fading of a guy who was never the front-runner is not a good reason to run. The front-runner must appear vulnerable. Those two factors contribute.”
“Gov. DeSantis is in trouble,” said Alabama’s two-term secretary of state John Merrill.
Gov. DeSantis and his team entered the race with high expectations. He said they believed they would be the Trump-lite alternative. That means emphasizing and following President Trump.
“But the problem is he didn’t have a ground game in place that was able to continuously mature [Trump-inclined supporters] to make them the kind of supporters that he had to have,” Merrill said. He has a big issue.
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“He waited too long because I think that he anticipated that people were just waiting on him to come out and beat Trump and that is obviously not the case,” said Merrill, who hasn't endorsed a candidate but will support Trump.
Republican strategists have pointed to other DeSantis missteps, such as his glitch-ridden Twitter Spaces campaign launch, which featured audio feedback and dead air.
Recently, LGBTQ Republicans called DeSantis' campaign video "homophobic" for highlighting Trump's LGBTQ rights support.
Even though most Republicans agree with him on those issues, it looks bad. He's blaming a group. The video was a mistake, Weber said.
Republican strategists say DeSantis has failed to connect with GOP primary voters personally.
Thursday, DeSantis blamed the media for his polling decline.
“Well, if you look at the people like the corporate media, who are they going after?” he told Fox News. “Who do they not want to nominate? They’re after me.”
A DeSantis super PAC spokesman, Steve Cortes, admitted that the Florida governor is "way behind" in the polls and faces "an uphill battle" against Trump.
Recent national polls show Trump leading DeSantis by 32 points.
Former New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg (R) said Youngkin or Kemp can still win the New Hampshire primary a week after the Iowa caucuses next year.
“It’s not too late. Gregg said Trump's lead is based on name recognition and nobody's getting traction. Gregg acknowledged Trump's base, which GOP strategists estimate makes up 30% of the Republican primary electorate, remains loyal.
“If somebody wanted to get into this race and come to New Hampshire once a week for 16 weeks, they would be a force if they connected with people,” he said. Youngkin appears strong.
Gregg suggested a late-entrant like Youngkin could beat Trump in New Hampshire for two reasons.
“New Hampshire is notoriously late deciding. We may not know the winner two weeks before a major election, especially the primaries. He said late-deciders.
“The second is there won’t be a serious Democratic [presidential primary] race up here... That means a huge independent Republican Primary vote. "Independents outnumber Democrats and Republicans up here," he said. So a legitimate, viable late entrant who comes here and takes the time to meet people is still viable.
Republican strategists believe Youngkin and Kemp are reconsidering presidential runs due to DeSantis's weakness.
“I think the fact that people are taking a second look at the race speaks more to DeSantis faltering out of the candidate than anything else,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell.
He predicted that Trump's momentum would deter other candidates.
Trump led Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup, 47 percent to 46 percent, in a June 22–26 Quinnipiac University poll of 1,584 registered voters in Pennsylvania, a key swing state.
Trump led Biden 48–41 in an Echelon Insights poll of 1,020 likely voters in several presidential swing states.
“Trump is clearly the front-runner. "That people are looking at [the race] again really speaks to DeSantis's weakness out of the gate," O'Connell said.
Republican strategists who have spoken to Youngkin's and Kemp's advisers say the Virginia governor is more likely to run but warn that despite DeSantis's struggles, it will be difficult for anyone to challenge Trump.
Despite being in his second year as governor, Youngkin has hinted at running for president.
One Republican strategist said Youngkin's camp "isn't ruling anything out" despite his early May statement that he wouldn't run for president "this year."
Kemp, meanwhile, says he's "staying focused on the state of Georgia" but may run for president.
“In politics, doors open and close and everything else,” he told CBS News recently.
A Republican strategist who consults with several Republican presidential campaigns predicted DeSantis will "retool" his super PAC in the coming weeks.
“They probably got another month to turn this thing around and if they don’t they’ll have to bring someone and do a major retooling,” the source said.
The strategist said “it’s very likely Youngkin could get in” and that he’s “appealing to all stripes of Republicans” and “some of the softer, more moderate elements — if you can call them that — of MAGA.”
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center, said DeSantis or any GOP nominee faces a "math" problem because Trump is dominating among "Tier 1" voters who are sure who they will support in next year's primary.
“Trump owns [many] of the first-tier voters and the second tier is split 13 ways,” he said. “I don’t think anyone else can join the race.
“Trump’s got a lock on that first, biggest chunk of votes and 13 other people are splitting second tier, so the math is very challenging,” he added.
These Republicans argue that DeSantis, long considered the strongest GOP primary challenger to former President Trump, has failed to distinguish himself.
Vin Weber, a GOP strategist, said, "I think his high point was right after the last election, when he was the brightest spot on an otherwise somewhat disappointing night for Republicans."
He's been weaker since then. “It looks to me people are looking at it because he’s not as strong as he was,” said Weber, who advised Republican presidential campaigns in 1996, 2004 and 2008.
Weber said Trump's legal issues make him vulnerable, despite his massive polling lead, which could make Youngkin and Kemp more interested in the race.
Weber said the fading of a guy who was never the front-runner is not a good reason to run. The front-runner must appear vulnerable. Those two factors contribute.”
“Gov. DeSantis is in trouble,” said Alabama’s two-term secretary of state John Merrill.
Gov. DeSantis and his team entered the race with high expectations. He said they believed they would be the Trump-lite alternative. That means emphasizing and following President Trump.
“But the problem is he didn’t have a ground game in place that was able to continuously mature [Trump-inclined supporters] to make them the kind of supporters that he had to have,” Merrill said. He has a big issue.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM WAYNEDUPREE.COM
“He waited too long because I think that he anticipated that people were just waiting on him to come out and beat Trump and that is obviously not the case,” said Merrill, who hasn't endorsed a candidate but will support Trump.
Republican strategists have pointed to other DeSantis missteps, such as his glitch-ridden Twitter Spaces campaign launch, which featured audio feedback and dead air.
Recently, LGBTQ Republicans called DeSantis' campaign video "homophobic" for highlighting Trump's LGBTQ rights support.
Even though most Republicans agree with him on those issues, it looks bad. He's blaming a group. The video was a mistake, Weber said.
Republican strategists say DeSantis has failed to connect with GOP primary voters personally.
Thursday, DeSantis blamed the media for his polling decline.
“Well, if you look at the people like the corporate media, who are they going after?” he told Fox News. “Who do they not want to nominate? They’re after me.”
A DeSantis super PAC spokesman, Steve Cortes, admitted that the Florida governor is "way behind" in the polls and faces "an uphill battle" against Trump.
Recent national polls show Trump leading DeSantis by 32 points.
Former New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg (R) said Youngkin or Kemp can still win the New Hampshire primary a week after the Iowa caucuses next year.
“It’s not too late. Gregg said Trump's lead is based on name recognition and nobody's getting traction. Gregg acknowledged Trump's base, which GOP strategists estimate makes up 30% of the Republican primary electorate, remains loyal.
“If somebody wanted to get into this race and come to New Hampshire once a week for 16 weeks, they would be a force if they connected with people,” he said. Youngkin appears strong.
Gregg suggested a late-entrant like Youngkin could beat Trump in New Hampshire for two reasons.
“New Hampshire is notoriously late deciding. We may not know the winner two weeks before a major election, especially the primaries. He said late-deciders.
“The second is there won’t be a serious Democratic [presidential primary] race up here... That means a huge independent Republican Primary vote. "Independents outnumber Democrats and Republicans up here," he said. So a legitimate, viable late entrant who comes here and takes the time to meet people is still viable.
Republican strategists believe Youngkin and Kemp are reconsidering presidential runs due to DeSantis's weakness.
“I think the fact that people are taking a second look at the race speaks more to DeSantis faltering out of the candidate than anything else,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell.
He predicted that Trump's momentum would deter other candidates.
Trump led Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup, 47 percent to 46 percent, in a June 22–26 Quinnipiac University poll of 1,584 registered voters in Pennsylvania, a key swing state.
Trump led Biden 48–41 in an Echelon Insights poll of 1,020 likely voters in several presidential swing states.
“Trump is clearly the front-runner. "That people are looking at [the race] again really speaks to DeSantis's weakness out of the gate," O'Connell said.
Republican strategists who have spoken to Youngkin's and Kemp's advisers say the Virginia governor is more likely to run but warn that despite DeSantis's struggles, it will be difficult for anyone to challenge Trump.
Despite being in his second year as governor, Youngkin has hinted at running for president.
One Republican strategist said Youngkin's camp "isn't ruling anything out" despite his early May statement that he wouldn't run for president "this year."
Kemp, meanwhile, says he's "staying focused on the state of Georgia" but may run for president.
“In politics, doors open and close and everything else,” he told CBS News recently.
A Republican strategist who consults with several Republican presidential campaigns predicted DeSantis will "retool" his super PAC in the coming weeks.
“They probably got another month to turn this thing around and if they don’t they’ll have to bring someone and do a major retooling,” the source said.
The strategist said “it’s very likely Youngkin could get in” and that he’s “appealing to all stripes of Republicans” and “some of the softer, more moderate elements — if you can call them that — of MAGA.”
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center, said DeSantis or any GOP nominee faces a "math" problem because Trump is dominating among "Tier 1" voters who are sure who they will support in next year's primary.
“Trump owns [many] of the first-tier voters and the second tier is split 13 ways,” he said. “I don’t think anyone else can join the race.
“Trump’s got a lock on that first, biggest chunk of votes and 13 other people are splitting second tier, so the math is very challenging,” he added.
