Quinnipiac University: Biden Leads Trump by 6 Points in Potential General Election Clash; Female Voters Huge Difference

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  • Source: Wayne Dupree
  • 01/31/2024
As of Wednesday, a new national survey from Quinnipiac University gave Joe Biden a 6-point advantage over Donald Trump in a potential general election fight, 50% to 44%. This is a substantial change from the results of the last poll, which was conducted in December 2023 and revealed that the race between Biden and Trump was "too close to call," with 47% and 46% of the vote, respectively.

According to the latest survey, female voters are beginning to favor Biden more. 58% of women said they favor the president, up from 53% in December. According to Quinnipiac University polling expert Tim Malloy, "the gender demographic provides a tale to keep an eye on" in the report on polling findings. "In only the last two weeks, female voters have propelled Biden to a tiny lead, transforming the head-to-head tie with Trump."

The 1,650 self-identified registered voters who participated in Quinnipiac's nationwide survey between Thursday and Monday had a 2.4 percentage point margin of error.

Within days of former President Donald Trump's decision to pay former Elle writer E. Jean Carroll $83.3 million in punitive and compensatory damages for his denial of her accusations that he raped her in New York in the 1990s, there has been a change in female support for Biden. A similar trial in May 2023 held him responsible for sexual assault and slander against Carroll.

Since December 2023, independents have also been more supportive of Biden. In a showdown in November, 52% of independent voters would choose Biden, according to the survey, a 6-point rise from the end of the previous year.

Pollsters believe the percentages are still pointing to a 2020 rematch between Biden and Trump in 2024, but Nikki Haley, the former president's main rival, is refusing to concede. In a head-to-head match, Biden prevailed over Trump; but, in a two-person match, Haley led Biden, 47% to 42%. Haley is the president's former UN ambassador. Malloy said, "In a head-to-head versus Biden, Haley outperforms Trump, owing to independents."

According to Haley's team, she has "tremendous support" from independent voters, and she leads Biden by 16 points among them, while Trump trails Biden by 12 points. According to the former ambassador's campaign, Democrats are wary of Biden and Haley facing one other.

Haley's national spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said in a statement, "The Democrats are drooling at the notion of running against Trump again and they are frightened of running against Nikki Haley." Trump lost in 2020, 2022, and 2018, and Democrats are aware that by 2024, he will be a liability to the Republican Party as a whole. Republicans will win everything on the ballot, including state legislatures, the White House, and the Senate, if Nikki is on the ticket.

But Malloy pointed out that when Biden and Haley were included in a hypothetical contest, Haley's support dropped significantly. In a field of five candidates that included independent and Green Party members, Biden took home 36%, Haley 29%, independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 21%, independent Cornel West 3%, and Green Party member Jill Stein 2%.

Even though it is improbable, Haley's high support among independent voters may wane if a third-party candidate were included on the general election ballot in 2024, so reducing her advantage over Biden.

The Democratic primary in South Carolina this coming weekend, the first formal competition in the party's presidential selection process, is coming up this weekend. The next state where Republicans will cast their ballots is Nevada, where Haley will be on the primary ballot but not in the caucuses. Although Trump will not be on the primary ballot, his participation in the caucuses will earn him delegates from each state.


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