Terrorism specialists believe that the Islamic State organization (IS), which has claimed responsibility for Friday's assault on a Moscow concert venue that resulted in the deaths of over 100 people, is most likely the result of its Afghan branch.
The Afghan branch of IS, known as the ISKP, has been able to recruit recruits from its rival organization since the hardline Taliban took control Kabul. It has also shown again and again that it is willing and able to launch attacks outside of Afghanistan.
The organization claimed responsibility for an explosion at Kabul airport in August 2021 that claimed the lives of 100 civilians and 13 US troops, coinciding with the US withdrawal from the Afghan capital and the Taliban's takeover of power.
It was the bloodiest strike on the US by IS to date. For information on Sanaullah Ghafari, also known as Shahab al-Muhajir, the head of the ISKP, Washington offered a $10 million prize.
The US State Department, which goes by a different abbreviation for the ISKP, states that he was born in 1994 and is “responsible for authorizing all ISIS-K activities across Afghanistan and obtaining financing to perform operations."
In November 2021, the US Foreign Ministry added Ghafari on its register of foreign terrorists.
According to Hans-Jakob Schindler, the director of the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) research group and a former UN terrorism expert, the IS branch in Afghanistan was established by the group's envoys who arrived from Iraq and Syria, in contrast to almost everywhere else in the world where pre-existing outfits pledged to its cause.
Schindler told AFP that "they have very close connections to the center, much more than the other affiliates," and that "this gives them access to ample funding."
The co-founder of the specialized website Militant Wire, Lucas Webber, emphasized that the ISKP has become the most globally focused IS branch. Since the height of the caliphate in Iraq and Syria, the branch has produced propaganda in more languages than any other.
He said that in order to "bolster its external operations capabilities and strike its various enemies abroad," it has been waging a "ambitious and aggressive campaign." ISKP has long been under observation by security agencies in both Russia and the West.
German officials detained two Afghan terrorists on Tuesday; they were allegedly preparing an assault on the Swedish parliament. The fear of terrorism against Stockholm has escalated due to the public burning of Korans. One of the two men is alleged to have travelled from Germany to join ISKP. Germany had previously dismantled a Russian-Tajik network in 2020, with more groups targeted in 2022 and 2023.
Russian authorities said on March 7 they had killed suspected ISKP members in an operation in the Kaluga region southwest of Moscow. Officials said the people had been planning an attack on a synagogue in the capital. Kazakhstan said two of its citizens were killed in the operation.
Russia has become a priority target for ISKP, which condemns its invasion of Ukraine and its military interventions across Africa and in Syria, Webber said. A 2022 suicide bombing targeted Russia’s embassy in Afghanistan.
ISKP “is working to extend its reach throughout Central Asia and Russia,” Webber added, putting together “a Russian language media wing to build support and incite violence inside the country”.
Schindler said that with Moscow’s attention on the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is a more tempting target. Friday’s attack — relatively cheap and straightforward to put together — was “a big symbol”, he added.
“Its hard to overestimate how important today’s attack in Moscow is for the Islamic State and what it tells about its evolution,” Tore Hamming of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization posted on X, formerly Twitter, on Friday.
“IS had worked since 2019 to reestablish an institutional unit in charge of external operations,” Hamming added, “first in Turkey and later in Afghanistan with Central Asians as key actors. Based on a recent high number of foiled plots and today’s attack, it appears they are succeeding,” Hamming said. ISKP now has “Afghanistan and Central Asia as a hub to target Russia/Asia and Turkey as a gateway to Europe,” he added.
The Afghan branch of IS, known as the ISKP, has been able to recruit recruits from its rival organization since the hardline Taliban took control Kabul. It has also shown again and again that it is willing and able to launch attacks outside of Afghanistan.
The organization claimed responsibility for an explosion at Kabul airport in August 2021 that claimed the lives of 100 civilians and 13 US troops, coinciding with the US withdrawal from the Afghan capital and the Taliban's takeover of power.
It was the bloodiest strike on the US by IS to date. For information on Sanaullah Ghafari, also known as Shahab al-Muhajir, the head of the ISKP, Washington offered a $10 million prize.
The US State Department, which goes by a different abbreviation for the ISKP, states that he was born in 1994 and is “responsible for authorizing all ISIS-K activities across Afghanistan and obtaining financing to perform operations."
In November 2021, the US Foreign Ministry added Ghafari on its register of foreign terrorists.
According to Hans-Jakob Schindler, the director of the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) research group and a former UN terrorism expert, the IS branch in Afghanistan was established by the group's envoys who arrived from Iraq and Syria, in contrast to almost everywhere else in the world where pre-existing outfits pledged to its cause.
Schindler told AFP that "they have very close connections to the center, much more than the other affiliates," and that "this gives them access to ample funding."
The co-founder of the specialized website Militant Wire, Lucas Webber, emphasized that the ISKP has become the most globally focused IS branch. Since the height of the caliphate in Iraq and Syria, the branch has produced propaganda in more languages than any other.
He said that in order to "bolster its external operations capabilities and strike its various enemies abroad," it has been waging a "ambitious and aggressive campaign." ISKP has long been under observation by security agencies in both Russia and the West.
German officials detained two Afghan terrorists on Tuesday; they were allegedly preparing an assault on the Swedish parliament. The fear of terrorism against Stockholm has escalated due to the public burning of Korans. One of the two men is alleged to have travelled from Germany to join ISKP. Germany had previously dismantled a Russian-Tajik network in 2020, with more groups targeted in 2022 and 2023.
Russian authorities said on March 7 they had killed suspected ISKP members in an operation in the Kaluga region southwest of Moscow. Officials said the people had been planning an attack on a synagogue in the capital. Kazakhstan said two of its citizens were killed in the operation.
Russia has become a priority target for ISKP, which condemns its invasion of Ukraine and its military interventions across Africa and in Syria, Webber said. A 2022 suicide bombing targeted Russia’s embassy in Afghanistan.
ISKP “is working to extend its reach throughout Central Asia and Russia,” Webber added, putting together “a Russian language media wing to build support and incite violence inside the country”.
Schindler said that with Moscow’s attention on the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is a more tempting target. Friday’s attack — relatively cheap and straightforward to put together — was “a big symbol”, he added.
“Its hard to overestimate how important today’s attack in Moscow is for the Islamic State and what it tells about its evolution,” Tore Hamming of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization posted on X, formerly Twitter, on Friday.
“IS had worked since 2019 to reestablish an institutional unit in charge of external operations,” Hamming added, “first in Turkey and later in Afghanistan with Central Asians as key actors. Based on a recent high number of foiled plots and today’s attack, it appears they are succeeding,” Hamming said. ISKP now has “Afghanistan and Central Asia as a hub to target Russia/Asia and Turkey as a gateway to Europe,” he added.
