The creator of ABC's FiveThirtyEight, pollster Nate Silver, said he anticipates “some further decline” in President Biden's poll scores when post debate surveys become available in the coming days and weeks.
After the release of the initial post-debate surveys on Monday night, Silver's "2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast" slightly shifted in favor of the former president. The pollster noted in the latest report that the results were largely unfavorable for Joe Biden. As per Silver's analysis, Trump is currently leading Biden by 2.7 percentage points in the national polling average. Biden's chances of winning dipped from 35% to 28% following the debate. Silver anticipates that the polls will continue in a similar direction.
"We predict that there will probably be further drop in the near future. The model is attempting to determine whether this is random noise, but it is most likely the result of Biden's difficult first debate. The president does not have good news, he tweeted on Monday.
The examination comes after several Democrats were alarmed by Biden's weak debate performance last week and after rumors circulated that he may unseat the incumbent president at the head of the Democratic ticket.
The Biden team and the White House have worked hard to allay party fears and ensure voters that he is the most qualified opponent of Trump in November. According to the most recent survey, the campaign still has a lot of work ahead of it. The national polling average from Decision Desk HQ shows that Trump and Biden are still tied, with Trump having a 0.9 percentage point advantage.
After the release of the initial post-debate surveys on Monday night, Silver's "2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast" slightly shifted in favor of the former president. The pollster noted in the latest report that the results were largely unfavorable for Joe Biden. As per Silver's analysis, Trump is currently leading Biden by 2.7 percentage points in the national polling average. Biden's chances of winning dipped from 35% to 28% following the debate. Silver anticipates that the polls will continue in a similar direction.
"We predict that there will probably be further drop in the near future. The model is attempting to determine whether this is random noise, but it is most likely the result of Biden's difficult first debate. The president does not have good news, he tweeted on Monday.
The examination comes after several Democrats were alarmed by Biden's weak debate performance last week and after rumors circulated that he may unseat the incumbent president at the head of the Democratic ticket.
The Biden team and the White House have worked hard to allay party fears and ensure voters that he is the most qualified opponent of Trump in November. According to the most recent survey, the campaign still has a lot of work ahead of it. The national polling average from Decision Desk HQ shows that Trump and Biden are still tied, with Trump having a 0.9 percentage point advantage.
