National Popularity Polls: VP Harris Surges Ahead of Former President Trump After DNC Convention

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  • Source: Wayne Dupree
  • 08/26/2024
In a recent poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University, Vice President Harris has overtaken former President Trump with a seven-point advantage in national popularity as the election looms closer. Securing 50 percent of the vote against Trump's 43 percent, Harris's lead represents a significant shift in the political landscape. The remaining percentage of voters are looking beyond these two candidates for their choice.

The allegiance within party lines remains steadfast, with both candidates enjoying a robust 95 percent backing from their respective supporters. However, the influence of race and gender on voter preference is undeniable, propelling Harris's lead when these factors are considered. Conversely, when such demographics are not highlighted, the competition between Harris and Trump tightens significantly.

Harris also maintains an edge over Trump among independents and non-partisans, albeit by a narrower margin of five points. Her appeal spans across liberals, progressives, and moderates—dominating these groups by wide margins. Trump’s stronghold is with conservatives and his MAGA base, where he overwhelmingly leads.

Trump’s support is notably strong among men who align with traditional masculine ideals. In contrast, women and men who diverge from these identities tend to favor Harris. According to Dan Cassino of Fairleigh Dickinson University, this dynamic underscores a shift in how gender and racial identities impact political allegiances.

The polling data suggests that while race is an intrinsic factor in voter decision-making processes, its impact hinges on the level of awareness voters have about racial issues. Trump manages to hold ground among non-white voters until racial considerations come into play—a moment that dramatically shifts support towards Harris.

Since stepping into the presidential race as the Democratic frontrunner last month, Harris has seen a swift rise in her polling numbers against Trump. This surge challenges what was previously viewed as a comfortable lead for Trump over Biden in key battleground states.

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While some observers caution against drawing early conclusions from these polls for the November elections, this trend indicates growing momentum for Harris. Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's polling index now shows her leading by 3.6 points over Trump—a figure that dismisses any claims made by Trump regarding his performance among Hispanic voters, Black men, and women.

Trump refuted assertions of Harris’s rising popularity in an interview with Fox News last week, insisting on his favorable standing among key demographic groups due to their prioritization of security issues.

This poll was conducted between August 17-20 with a sample size of 801 registered voters nationwide by Braun Research. It boasts a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points at a confidence interval of 95 percent—adding another layer to the unfolding narrative as America heads toward another defining election cycle.



 

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