In a recent analysis, Harry Enten, CNN's esteemed senior political data reporter, offered an intriguing perspective on the upcoming presidential election: a significant victory in the Electoral College for one candidate seems increasingly probable. Despite polls indicating a tight race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump in all seven critical swing states, Enten's electoral model suggests there's a 60% chance the victor will secure at least 300 electoral votes. This forecast challenges the prevailing narrative of an exceptionally close contest, hinting instead at a potential electoral margin that could be described as comfortable.
Historically speaking, polling errors have played a pivotal role in shaping election outcomes. With an average polling discrepancy of 3.4 percentage points in key battleground states since 1972, this year’s election could very well see one contender outperforming poll predictions across the board. Enten pointed to previous elections where underestimations were common — notably for Obama in 2012, Trump in both 2016 and 2020 — suggesting a pattern where either Democratic or Republican candidates exceed expectations more uniformly than anticipated.
This phenomenon raises the possibility of this year's election defying recent trends of nail-biting finishes. Although presidential races have been remarkably close over the past few elections — with President Biden narrowly clinching six of the seven battleground states in 2020 — Enten's insights suggest we might witness a departure from these tightly contested battles. It’s worth noting that it has been decades since America saw a decisive landslide victory akin to George H.W. Bush's triumph in 1988.
As voters and analysts alike scrutinize every new poll and prediction, Enten’s analysis introduces an element of unpredictability into what many assumed would be another closely fought electoral battle. With potential polling inaccuracies poised to play a crucial role once again, this election could surprise us yet with its outcome, underscoring the inherent uncertainties of political forecasting.
