One of the census categories with the greatest rate of growth in America is Hispanic, and their realignment away from the Democratic Party portends a political earthquake. If polls are accurate and more Hispanics choose to vote Republican in November, the much-promised inevitable rise of the Democratic Party will have been exposed as a fantasy.
Political considerations led to the 1970 census’s inclusion of Hispanics as a separate ethnic category. You are considered Hispanic if someone in your family tree speaks Spanish; this category covers both current immigrants to the nation and individuals who came before the Pilgrims.
In 2021, there were 62 million Hispanics, or 19% of the population, according to the census. A 2017 Pew Research Center study found that many Americans stop identifying as Hispanic after the third generation. 58% of Hispanics who were asked about their race on the census stated they were white, 27% said they were “some other race,” 8% said they were two or more races, and 2% said they were black. Of all ethnic or racial groups, Hispanics have the greatest incidence of intermarried couples. Hispanics are experiencing a cultural melting pot in America.
Many second and third generation immigrants don’t speak their ancestors’ native tongue, much as the Germans, Italians, and Greeks who came before them. The median income of Hispanic families has increased 17% more rapidly over the past 50 years than the general population. In terms of labor force participation and income distribution, Hispanics today resemble Republicans more so than Democrats. Furthermore, there is a compelling argument that the same causes influencing the political realignment of middle-class workers more broadly are also influencing Hispanic voters.
The proliferation of government transfers, which over the last 50 years has considerably exceeded growth in the after-tax income of middle-class working families, has largely equalized the earnings of the poorest 60% of Americans, as we have demonstrated on these pages. Along with the reduction in labor effort among low-income households, this economic equality brought about by the government has also sparked a populist political realignment. The flimsy Roosevelt alliance of white-collar employees and those who benefit from government handouts is disintegrating.
Because their work-age people are 3.1 times more likely to work and work more than twice as many hours when they do, middle-income American households make more than 10 times as much as homes in the poorest 20% of earnings, according to census statistics. However, after deducting transfers and taxes, families with and without workers today earn about the same amount of money.
An unfair system where individuals who don’t put out any effort are almost as wealthy as those who do is drawing rising hostility from the working class. The Reagan Democrats of the 1980s, who were fostering this worker uprising, were completely realized in the blue-collar political base of Donald Trump.
Hispanic voters are now heavily influenced by this worker rebellion, which is not unexpected given that most Hispanic Americans are employed. The average American household receives 10% more transfer payments than Hispanic families do. In the lowest income quintile, where only 36% of people of working age are employed and where almost 90% of all income comes from government transfers, they are underrepresented by 13%. Compared to all white households, they had a 7% lower chance of being in the lowest quintile. In the second income quintile, where 85% of people of working age are employed, Hispanic families are overrepresented by 31%, and in the American middle class, where 92% of people of working age are employed, they are overrepresented by 21%. It shouldn’t be surprising that working middle-class Americans have similar opinions.
The Democratic Party has hired more Hispanic political strategists in response to the change in Hispanic voters. The Democratic National Committee claims to have made “record investments” in reaching out to Hispanic voters this election year, according to the Washington Post. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has invested $46 million in recruiting and engaging Hispanic political strategists. The same bill in the House cost $31 million. These political committees, along with nonprofit organizations, have employed Latino strategists and specifically targeted Hispanic voters in an effort to highlight the policy accomplishments of the Biden administration, such as increased transfer payments and student debt forgiveness.
We won’t know the answer until the votes are in, but it seems unlikely that bragging about the benefits the Biden administration has provided middle-class Hispanic employees would be effective—especially considering that Hispanics are already less likely to get welfare benefits than white voters in general. For Hispanic families who have migrated in historic numbers into middle-class America, the message of grievance would appear futile. Hispanics do not perceive themselves as an oppressed minority, according to polls, and their track record of economic success demonstrates this.
In deep South Texas, this political realignment is being played out in miniature. Republican Monica De La Cruz runs advertisements claiming that her grandma would be pleased with her for having her own company. Rep. Mayra Flores, who immigrated from Mexico as a kid and labored as a migrant farm laborer with her family, recalls that she advanced to become a respiratory care specialist in “the promised land.” In a new district where Mr. Biden won by 15 points and Hillary Clinton by 30, Ms. Flores is running against a Democrat incumbent after winning a special election in a district that Joe Biden took by 5 points.
Voters are very concerned about the porous border that has flooded South Texas with illegal immigration, drugs, and violence. The Democratic Party’s campaign against traditional family values is the same. But at its core, the election is a decision between the opportunities provided by the American economy and the advantages provided by the government. The Hispanic Republican candidates are trying to spread the American ideal that striving for success pays off. The Reagan-era political slogan has been revived by them. They stand for freedom, faith, and family. Nowhere else in America does the voter have a clearer option.
